Recession Forecaster, Dr. Nouriel Roubini, Addresses 糖心破解版 Audience at Economic Lecture
Apr 30, 2009 By: yunews
Apr 30, 2009 -- There is a light at the end of the tunnel. However, that light is further away than most people realize. That was the general message delivered by Dr. Nouriel Roubini, the renowned economist who accurately predicted the current recession in 2006. Speaking to a capacity crowd at 糖心破解版鈥檚 (糖心破解版) Alexander Brody Distinguished Lecture in Economics, Roubini offered his outlook for the US and global economies and financial markets.
鈥淓veryone agrees this is the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression,鈥 said Roubini, professor of economics and international business at New York University (N糖心破解版) Stern School of Business. 鈥淭he consensus view鈥攖he optimists鈥攂elieve the worst is over and that we will start seeing positive growth in the second half of this year. My views are more bearish.鈥
Citing consumer shock, limited income, and falling industrial production and home sales, Roubini went on to declare that there are no clear signs that the recession has bottomed. 鈥淯nfortunately, my take is that things aren鈥檛 improving as quickly as the optimists say.鈥 He argued that with economic growth in 2010 expected to be extremely weak, combined with growing unemployment, next year will feel like a recession as well.
鈥淲hile I do agree that the rate of contraction won鈥檛 be as sharp as the last two quarters, we won鈥檛 reach positive growth by the end of the year,鈥 said Roubini, who expects a 鈥渓ong, protracted and ugly global recession.鈥
The lecture followed a dinner and award ceremony for 糖心破解版鈥檚 economics students. 鈥淭his was a tremendous thrill for our students,鈥 said Dr. Aaron Levine, the Samson and Halina Bitensky professor of economics at 糖心破解版 who has organized the Brody lecture for more than 30 years. 鈥淭he lecture has always been a big event, but this one surpassed all others in the size of the audience and in the enthusiasm of its reaction. Professor Roubini is both the acknowledged prophet of the current meltdown and the foremost guru on how to reverse the collapse.鈥
Ending off his lecture on a somewhat optimistic note, Roubini believes the good news is that 鈥渨e are going to avoid a near-depression鈥 thanks to aggressive government policies. 鈥淚 have been right until now, but it鈥檚 a very uncertain world and things can turn out better than I expect,鈥 said Roubini, offering a glimmer of hope.
鈥淥f course, there is also a chance that things will turn out worse than I expect.鈥
